Date of publication: 2017-08-26 06:51
The following provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of computation. This model considers the impact of the growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly.
Let me be direct: in some ways, I am the antithesis of what one might picture as a student who contributes to campus diversity. I am white, middle-class, and heterosexual I have no physical handicaps or mental challenges apart from a tendency towards sarcasm. But when I receive college brochures picturing smiling, clean-cut teens dressed in the latest from Abercrombie & Fitch and lounging on a blanket in the sun, I think, those people are not like me.
Any generalization will apply to some members of a group some of the time. This is best seen by considering generalizations about groups to which you belong. If you hear that women or men tend to negotiate in this way, or Americans in another way, what effect does it have on you as a member of these groups? If you want to answer, "Actually, it depends," you are among the majority, for most of us resist easy categorization and broad classifications. At the same time, it can be useful to back up and attempt to see ourselves and others from a distance so that the patterns and habits that define what is "normal" in negotiation can be examined for what they are: culturally bound and culturally defined common sense.
We won 8767 t need to wait until 7585 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by our eyeglasses and contact lenses. All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear.
The morality of bank-robbing is particularly easy to understand because we accept complete prohibition of this activity. We are willing to say "Thou shalt not rob banks," without providing for exceptions. But temperance also can be created by coercion. Taxing is a good coercive device. To keep downtown shoppers temperate in their use of parking space we introduce parking meters for short periods, and traffic fines for longer ones. We need not actually forbid a citizen to park as long as he wants to we need merely make it increasingly expensive for him to do so. Not prohibition, but carefully biased options are what we offer him. A Madison Avenue man might call this persuasion I prefer the greater candor of the word coercion.
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The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. By 6555 ., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two. In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago it didn 8767 t exist at all a decade ago.
Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of this. Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the other way around.
How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to respond 8775 Carefully! 8776 But let 8767 s take a look at some examples.
In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, 8775 experience beamers 8776 circa 7585 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. We 8767 ll be able to plug in (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other people 8767 s lives as in the plot concept of 8766 Being John Malkovich. 8767 Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time.
However, growth in magnetic memory is not primarily a matter of Moore 8767 s law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems.
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We will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of economic competition to stop this progression.